The Problem: Magnitude and Scale
The U.S. National Retail Federation late last year estimated that 15.8% of annual retail sales were returned in 2025, totaling $849.9 billion. For online sales, that number jumped to 19.3%.
Gen Z is driving this trend, with shoppers aged 18 to 30 averaging nearly eight online returns per person last year, the NRF found.
The Technical Solution
Shopify, meanwhile, has integrated startup Genlook's AI virtual try-on app into its commerce platform, which it says "removes sizing doubts, boosts buyer confidence and drives higher conversion rates while reducing costly returns."
From April 30, Google's virtual try-on tech can be accessed directly within product search results across Google platforms, according to Google Labs' website.
Meanwhile, Catches projects that its app can drive a 10% increase in conversions and a 20- to 30-times return on investment for brand partners. It focuses on luxury brands because of their higher price point.
Physics-Based Realism Matters
The key differentiator: Unlike other models that say "just look pretty," the Catches platform incorporates the physics of fabric texture and how material interacts with a moving body. This level of detail is what separates convincing from gimmicky.
My Take: This is enterprise AI solving a real, quantifiable business problem. $850B in annual returns represents one of retail's largest margins drains. Virtual try-on won't eliminate returns (fit is only part of the reason), but even a 5-10% reduction translates to tens of billions in saved processing and logistics costs. Expect rapid adoption in luxury and apparel by Q4 2026.